It was somewhat of a joke;) He completed Kennedy's term and and was only only elected once. He refused to run for a 3rd. Given the immense ego's of these guys one might assume it was because he was unlikely to win. Peeing on people is unlikely to win you a lot of friends.
The application of Bayesian probabilistic reasoning in general (as described in this video) is not the same thing as "Bayesian statistics" specifically, which usually to modeling and posterior inference using both a likelihood model and a prior model. It's a very different approach to statistical inference both in theory and in practice. This creator himself is either ignorant of this distinction or is trying to mislead his viewers in order to dunk on the FDA. It's obvious from the video comments that many people have indeed been misled as to what Bayesian statistics is and what the implications of its might be in the context of clinical trials.
Indeed, even more broadly online "Bayesian" seems to have taken on the form of "I know Bayes' Rule and think about base rates" as opposed to "Do you prefer jags or stan for MCMC?"
Software engineering has been on a quest to make everyone a programer for at least as long as I have been the business (>40 yrs). As that has progressed the quantity of software produced has increased and the quality decreased (with both good and bad consequences). I would expect that to accelerate with similar consequences.
1. NonProgrammers will be able to create superficially working programs for some unmet need. Good if that need does not have a large enough market to attract investment. Bad if that superficially working program exposes them to security risks or bugs that can lose them money.
2. We see a lot more BS software - Social media, Scam and Advertising. This will be due to lowering the barriers of entry since expensive competent people will not have to be involved. Expensive competent people generally have better things to do with their time.
3. New programming fad - Spec-Driven Development (SDD). IMO that will be a mixed bag. Imagine creating a spec, feeding it to Claude code one day, making a small tweak (or possibly no tweak) some n days later and getting an entirely different code in return. We will spend the next 10 years developing new strategies for just about every thing we do without really doing it much better.
4. Running our code will become more expensive and software ownership will decrease. My friend handles an extremely large corporate account for MS. Before Office 365 they did 5 million a year with MS. A couple of years after adopting Office 365 $25 million a year. AI providers will definitely do more rent seeking by convincing people that they need their service to compete, locking them in, increasing the rent.
Sounds to me like they intend to control the oil production infrastructure which is land/territory within Venezuela - but what do I know.
Isn't the entire Polymarket concept rife with ways to abuse the system? If I have insider knowledge I get shills to create a market for that knowledge - then make an extreme bet at the last moment. Seems sort of like betting the 49ers will not win the Super Bowl because you know that Purdy's kneecaps are about to be busted. Or large options trades the day before the Senate votes on Healthcare bills.
If you want a gambling site, you need to ban insider knowledge. If you want to generate accurate predictions, you want to encourage insider knowledge. But even then, the problem you mention can occur when an insider extreme bet happens at the last minute, because although you end up with an accurate prediction it isn't very useful in the few minutes before it becomes a fact. I don't know if there is a solution.
Time-weight predictions so that they're "worth" more the further in advance they are, converging to "worthless" as they approach the due date? Perhaps there is a way of making this result emerge "organically" from the rules of the system, rather than explicitly encoding it.
Depends on your goals. If you are the platform then there is nothing to solve: you’re running an illegal gambling website and currently getting away with it. If you are an inside trader you’re also doing well.
It’s not great for the gambling addicts but helping people better themselves doesn’t seem to be a theme in federal policy at the moment
Gambling sites probably do have it in their user agreements.
Further, "insider trading" in prediction markets is probably fundamentally illegal under existing commodities fraud laws in the US (I am not a lawyer,) but there's probably nobody actively policing it, and probably no precedent in how to prosecute the cases.
I think it hinges on whether "any part of Venezuela" includes intangible "parts" like being able to tell them who to sell oil to, or whether it only refers to land/territory. The second paragraph implies that control over land is the point of the bet, but it doesn't explicitly say so. Control over the oil industry doesn't require control over land.
Naive view is it's suppose to create public interest measures with real valued results.
Unfortunately, it's pretty easy to see something, eventually, like "X won't be seen in public after December 31st, 2026" essentially creating an assassination market.
“Move fast and break things” works well when you are a little player in a big world, because you can only perturb the system into so bad a state with you limited resources. Now, they got big, and everything is broken.
The people that pay are the Institutions (Universities mainly). Not the readers. The publications are sold to them as bundles even if the Institution does not want all the journals.
Yes you are correct, however I don't understand how this relates to my point, do you mind clarifying? I'd also caveat that the library (the purchaser of these bundles at most universities) often buys bundles based on requests from academics (more specifically research groups/departments) at the university, thus the readers do have some sway over which are purchased.
I do not know specifics of bundling agreements (shocker that I admit not knowing something:). I do know that libraries at some Institutions have started to provide funds to their researchers to pay the APCs. The library then goes to the Open Access publisher and negotiates bulk APC deals if they commit to a certain number of publications. Sort of a win win grant wise. This does not necessarily guaranty publication but if it does not get published you don't pay (processing submissions is an expense Open Access publishers incurs).
I am certain that that no system is perfect. My belief is that the Closed Access publishers have had free reign for so long that the largest ones abuse the system and competitive models are useful to restore some balance. The model also restricts access to information.
I would argue that one downside to Open Access is that incentives volume over quality (as others have said) but I would judge that on a per publisher basis just as I would any publisher. Closed Access models might also provide publication in areas of research that don't get tons of attention and research money.
I would also argue that there are other problems within research such as lack of reproducible results in many papers that is a far more pressing issue. Just my 2 cents. Thank you for the honest discussion.
Authors where paid to do the research and publish their work that produced the paper (that is what the grant was for). PLoS an Open Access publisher pays editors, type sets the work, finds a reviewer and publishes the work for free access on the internet. Reviewers are the ones that generally do not get paid for their work.
Elsevier makes over $3 billion dollars with the closed publication model. They force institutions to pay for bundles of journals they do not want. The Institutions often do not supply access to the general public despite the papers being produced with public money (and despite many of the Institutions being funded by public money).
Paying the cost upfront from the grant increases the availability to the public.
I think the Elsevier model will eventually be deprecated, at the least for the open sector of society (aka taxpayers money). People demand that when they pay taxes, they should not have to pay again due to Elsevier and I think this is a reasonable demand. Many researchers also support this.
At low costs of $2k~$3k per publication[0]. Elsevier closed-access journals will charge you $0 to publish your paper.
>Elsevier makes over $3 billion dollars with the closed publication model.
Elsevier is also[1] moving to APC for their journals because is better business.
>The Institutions often do not supply access to the general public despite the papers being produced with public money
Journals (usually) forbid you of sharing the published (supposedly edited) version of a paper. You're allowed to share the pre-published draft (see arXiv). Institutions could (and some indeed do) supply those drafts on their own.
>Paying the cost upfront from the grant increases the availability to the public.
At the expense of making research more expensive and hence more exclusive. It's money rather quality that matters now. Thus it isn't unsurprising that Frontiers & MDPI, two very known open-access proponent publishers, are also very known to publishing garbage. It's ironic that once was said that any journal asking you for money to publish your paper is predatory, yet nowadays somehow this is considered best practice.
Better busness or are their customers demanding it? PLoS is a Non-Profit - feel free to look up how much they make. I believe it is public record.
If researchers cannot pay the APC then PLoS often reduces the fee. Also - half of that grant money is used by the Institution as administrative overhead. An part of that overhead is paying Elsevier for journal access. If you want to decrease the cost of research that may be a better place to start.
I agree that volume often tends to result in garbage but the review is supposed to lessen that. Again that garbage did get funded some how.
I am not pushing PLoS - they are simply a publisher I am familiar with that uses this model.
The garbage thing is really interesting. I'm going to propose another reason for garbage is Academia's reliance on publication as the primary means for giving promotions and judging peoples work. This leads to all kinds of disfunction.
Was it Nobel Prize Winner Peter Higgs that said his University wanted to fire him because he didn't publish frequently enough?
Authors may NOT be paid at all for their work, or may even pay to do it.
I am a self-funded PhD student and no one paid me for the work that went into my open access paper. As it happens in this case the journal waived the publication fee, so no one paid anyone anything except I suppose the nominal pro-rata portion of my university fees that I paid.
That is true also. The pre-pub route may be your best bet if that is a concern. One shoe does not fit all feet. I am only trying to argue the merits of the Open Access model. It is certainly not perfect.
It is certainly not perfect. Competition/Choice is good. It is interesting that people do not understand their grant money is paying for it regardless. Either an upfront cost or through the administrative overhead the Institution gets from the grant.
Why was this comment flagged? There’s plenty of room to disagree with it, sure, but it isn’t offensive or repulsive or anything. If anything, I’d love to see it argued against…
It wasn't flagged, they're shadowbanned. [dead] without [flagged] is not the same as [flagged][dead]. [dead] alone is shadowbanned or maybe mod killed, [flagged][dead] means that it was flagged to death by users.
They (or someone) needs to message the mods about it, it looks like they've been shadowbanned since their first comment 6 months ago.
Microsoft has started raising prices on many of their products. I suppose they decided that their current customers need to pay the increased CapEx for AI;) New motto - AI pay for it whether you use it or not.
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