This is a very interesting article - thanks for some actual reporting.
Note: Uber could be in violation of NAFTA and many other trade deals - as they maybe 'dumping' a product (in this case a service) on other markets, massively unprofitably, in order to put competitors out of business, after which they will ostensibly reap monopoly profits.
I'm still not quite sold on Uber, I think there is some interesting value here ... but there are some dubious issues.
If Uber falls it will be painful for other entrepreneurs - they are definitely keeping some 'animal spirits' going among investors. A lot of institutional money is in Uber, if they pull out of other things ... well valuations will get harder for companies looking for bigger C and D rounds for sure :)
That's a good point. I wonder how things will shake out for Uber if NAFTA is renegotiated.
In any case, one game-changing regulation or political event could wipe out tens of billions in perceived value. If, for example, a small cluster of European countries banned Uber for whatever reason, it could make the entire house of cards collapse if they don't cross the self-driving car chasm fast enough.
We don't even win cases against America that are cut-and-dry.
The problem with trade agreements, is that ultimately, issues are grey, and therefore political.
Making an 'anti dumping' case against Uber is a little bit of a stretch, meaning - Americans will tell us (Canadians) to f* off.
If we try to enforce even more material issues, then we get the threat of other things (border fees, travel visas, no pipeline approval).
There's 1% chance NAFTA will be re-negotiated.
A) I don't think Trump actually dislikes it, he's just being populist.
B) He would not negotiate in a fair manner. Way back, when it was done, it was done in the spirit of trade. It was an intellectual thing. With Trump, it will be 'America first' - not about the value of open trade.
Even if Canada is forced to the negotiating table, we will have a very weak hand, and our strategy would probably be simply to delay, delay, delay until someone other than Trump is in charge.
There are basically zero other Presidential Candidates who would be against it.
Also - maybe Trump doesn't like it ... but he's not going to do a trade deal on his own. 99% of Republicans and probably 80% of Democrats are 'for' NAFTA. They have powerful constituents.
The moment negotiations started, a lot of CEO's will be screaming bloody murder, and Trump would listen.
But as far as Uber-NAFTA - I doubt there will ever be anything raised.
NATFA? How would that apply? Uber (the US company) isn't selling any product at below cost, Uber Canada is. Why wouldn't they simply apply their internal anti-dumping laws?
Thanks for replying. My point would be that they would not really evade laws, since as a Canadian company (even if a subsidiary) they are subject to Canadian anti-dumping laws. I don't get why NAFTA is needed at all, and why would it apply to a service provided locally. It's not like Uber "imports" rides.
Note: Uber could be in violation of NAFTA and many other trade deals - as they maybe 'dumping' a product (in this case a service) on other markets, massively unprofitably, in order to put competitors out of business, after which they will ostensibly reap monopoly profits.
I'm still not quite sold on Uber, I think there is some interesting value here ... but there are some dubious issues.
If Uber falls it will be painful for other entrepreneurs - they are definitely keeping some 'animal spirits' going among investors. A lot of institutional money is in Uber, if they pull out of other things ... well valuations will get harder for companies looking for bigger C and D rounds for sure :)