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Here are a few of my solid guesses.

1. A destination site that is closely tied to a mobile hardware device. (Apple, Google and MS have the closest chance with this). +1 if company has TV expansion to get the rest of the population.

2. Implosion. Internal conflict most probably from investors/shareholders vs. leaders.

3. Site-wide security breach that affected more than 30% of users and had serious and press-juicy consequences. The issue should persist for more than a week.

4. Zuckerberg's death or serious illness. (non-issue if a strong leader emerges)

5. Talent migration. This is inevitable as there will be fewer and fewer challenges left to excite sharp minds (3-5 years)



To expand on #1.

MS has Xbox, Xbox Live, Windows but weak mobile + web products.

Apple has itunes, ios, macosx but negligible web prowess and zero social web domain expertise.

Google has strong web engineering output and Android, nothing else come to mind.

If you can apply a social web layer to their products which would come out stronger?

The answer to that might be the Facebook killer I think.




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