You seem to be unclear on the difference between intelligence analysis and fortune telling.

> You seem to be unclear on the difference between intelligence analysis and fortune telling.

No. You seem to forget that many strategists also thought Russia wouldn't launch a full scale war against Ukraine.

It was possible to predict the Ukraine war; such an operation requires planning, troop moves, etc. It's very clear US intelligence had a good handle on this.

Predicting the next war now prior to any such planning/moves is a silly expectation of people, even if they're experts.

> Predicting the next war now prior to any such planning/moves is a silly expectation of people, even if they're experts.

Russia threatened Finland with invasion if they join NATO. Are the Russians actually going to invade Finland when the later joins NATO?

No one knows. That's crystal ball stuff.

If Russia starts moving troops towards Finland, and intelligence agencies start getting indications from electronic and human intelligence, and the rhetoric starts ramping up, you start being able to make more educated predictions.