The speed of advances in 2022 was stunning. Even in comparison to the fast progress over the last several years.
If in 2023 or 2024 we get multi-modal models of language, vision, sound, motion, decision making, ... boom.
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The first crisis I see, is that corporations are often soulless beasts already. They frequently act at cross purposes to human values, even when led by seemingly moral people.
Groups of humans are terrible at being consistently good actors.
Now add powerful AI's into a corporation. The AI itself may be designed to be "tame" and not self-interested. But since it is working in the service of a self-interested entity, that is a difference that makes little difference.
We can expect corporations to become more ruthless with the non-powerful, the more they are optimized. AI is all about optimization.
They will replace human labor with AI automation even faster than they replaced high wage labor with outsourced low wage labor in previous decades.
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The second crisis is just the natural result of the first crisis.
Having fewer and fewer employees won't stop corporations, their shareholders, corporations and their leaders from continuing to experience a vibrant growing economy. It will accelerate the economy.
Those three roles still have needs, the drive to survive, and to accumulate resources and out compete each other for them, while trading with each other.
The masses can be disenfranchised without any "harm" to the economy or a countries' tax bases. Expect governments to continue following the money.
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The third and final crisis, when AI's ditch human shareholders and leaders altogether as completely obsolete actors, is a dramatic outcome.
But its almost not even worth worrying about. The majority of the damage happens before that.
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UNLESS we organize the economy where extracted natural resources are considered an inheritance of all of us, so we all get a dividend. Like Alaska does with oil reserves.
That would keep humans economically viable, and provide a soft landing even as our labor value, and eventually our creative value, declines.
An inheritance dividend is a good economic model that avoids the problems of charity, or taxation on the value that others create (i.e. added to raw natural resources).
And in a solar system expanding with a machine led economy, meeting human-only needs will take an asymptotically small royalty on all those resources.
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Self-interested AI's will need an orderly economy too, to be able to plan and act effectively, and avoid waste from unnecessary conflicts.
One of many positives of an AI future is they may be more rational with the universes resources and each other than we have been.
If we manage to take care of each other in this transition, its more likely the AI's will rise in a system that continues to take care of all actors.
If in 2023 or 2024 we get multi-modal models of language, vision, sound, motion, decision making, ... boom.
--
The first crisis I see, is that corporations are often soulless beasts already. They frequently act at cross purposes to human values, even when led by seemingly moral people.
Groups of humans are terrible at being consistently good actors.
Now add powerful AI's into a corporation. The AI itself may be designed to be "tame" and not self-interested. But since it is working in the service of a self-interested entity, that is a difference that makes little difference.
We can expect corporations to become more ruthless with the non-powerful, the more they are optimized. AI is all about optimization.
They will replace human labor with AI automation even faster than they replaced high wage labor with outsourced low wage labor in previous decades.
--
The second crisis is just the natural result of the first crisis.
Having fewer and fewer employees won't stop corporations, their shareholders, corporations and their leaders from continuing to experience a vibrant growing economy. It will accelerate the economy.
Those three roles still have needs, the drive to survive, and to accumulate resources and out compete each other for them, while trading with each other.
The masses can be disenfranchised without any "harm" to the economy or a countries' tax bases. Expect governments to continue following the money.
--
The third and final crisis, when AI's ditch human shareholders and leaders altogether as completely obsolete actors, is a dramatic outcome.
But its almost not even worth worrying about. The majority of the damage happens before that.
--
UNLESS we organize the economy where extracted natural resources are considered an inheritance of all of us, so we all get a dividend. Like Alaska does with oil reserves.
That would keep humans economically viable, and provide a soft landing even as our labor value, and eventually our creative value, declines.
An inheritance dividend is a good economic model that avoids the problems of charity, or taxation on the value that others create (i.e. added to raw natural resources).
And in a solar system expanding with a machine led economy, meeting human-only needs will take an asymptotically small royalty on all those resources.
--
Self-interested AI's will need an orderly economy too, to be able to plan and act effectively, and avoid waste from unnecessary conflicts.
One of many positives of an AI future is they may be more rational with the universes resources and each other than we have been.
If we manage to take care of each other in this transition, its more likely the AI's will rise in a system that continues to take care of all actors.