"There is no change in U.S. or allied policy that will persuade the Chinese government and Chinese firms to abandon their semiconductor equipment de-Americanization and decoupling effort"
Deeply confused policy. But this is CSIS, so perhaps expected.
US export controls have certainly slowed down China's innovation rate, but also have played a critical role in accelerating the previously difficult job Beijing had of persuading Chinese companies to buy local when they had previously much preferred the leading edge components and equipment provided by the globalised supply chain. These companies now thoroughly understand the need to entirely de-risk from US controlled supply chain, diverting revenue which should have gone toward the R&D departments of NVIDIA, ASML, TSMC and the like to the R&D departments of Huawei & SMIC, the latter of which now have a de facto protected market all to themselves.
You would have thought the galaxy brains in Washington would've at least read Sun Tzu - first law of war is disrupt the enemy's plans, not accelerate them.
Deeply confused policy. But this is CSIS, so perhaps expected.
US export controls have certainly slowed down China's innovation rate, but also have played a critical role in accelerating the previously difficult job Beijing had of persuading Chinese companies to buy local when they had previously much preferred the leading edge components and equipment provided by the globalised supply chain. These companies now thoroughly understand the need to entirely de-risk from US controlled supply chain, diverting revenue which should have gone toward the R&D departments of NVIDIA, ASML, TSMC and the like to the R&D departments of Huawei & SMIC, the latter of which now have a de facto protected market all to themselves.
You would have thought the galaxy brains in Washington would've at least read Sun Tzu - first law of war is disrupt the enemy's plans, not accelerate them.