Something close to what we saw in the early days of the war when it nearly happened: huge numbers of Ukranians streaming across the European borders.

Once Ukraine surrendered there would then be a question of whether to allow "free Ukranian" forces to operate from inside NATO, or arrest them. Would there be a series of escalating incidents towards a direct NATO-Russia war?

Very different, as friendly land is not so far away and no water in between.

Look for fall of Kabul, if you are looking for dramatic scenes.

That would prempt a Polish invasion and reconquest.

Last thing that we would want in a case like that is even more destabilization.

Honestly at best I do imagine trying to set a puppet govt as a buffer, but outright annexing that is so dumb of a thing that I can't even get started.

I'm Polish and this is the dumbest thing I've read all day.

What?

I don't think poland has any chance to win against Russia, and I don't believe NATO would support an offensive, or even help defend Poland if Poland started it. And it seems implausible that Poland doesn't realize this, or is crazy enough to take the risk.

Russia is not showing itself to be particularly not good at war. And drones suck up the meat attacks. Best thing Poland could do is parachute into crimea and watch the negotiations from afar. Everyone else needs to start training their meat (to die valiantly) two years ago.