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People claimed that we would spend most of our day on the internet in the mid-90s, and then the dotcom bubble burst. And then people claimed that by 2015 robo-taxis would be around all the major cities of the planet.

You can be right but too early. There was a hype wave for drones and VR (more than one for the latter one), but I wouldn't be so sure that it's peak of their real world usage yet.



Which is why I think there are two distinct kinds of perspective, and for one of them, AI hype is just about at the right levels - and being too early is not a problem, unless it delays things indefinitely.

I wrote about it recently here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44208831. Quoting myself (sorry):

> For me, one of the Beneficiaries, the hype seems totally warranted. The capability is there, the possibilities are enormous, pace of advancement is staggering, and achieving them is realistic. If it takes a few years longer than the Investor group thinks - that's fine with us; it's only a problem for them.


You're getting from it the one thing it can deliver. Dazzle and publicity.


Yes. That, and a shit ton of work done - work I wouldn't manage to do, or wouldn't even try, without AI tools.


>> You can be right but too early.

Unless opportunity cost is zero this is a varation on being wrong.




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