Solar is extremely cheap and battery costs are dropping quickly, IMO you may see US neighborhoods, especially rural disconnecting from the grid and rolling their own solutions.
This china rare earth thing may slow down the battery price drop somewhat but not for long because plenty of chemistries don't rely on rare earths, and there will soon be plenty of old EV packs that have some life left in them as part of grid storage.
Yeah, that's totally believable. I remember how everyone raved about cheap EV charging a decade ago, how it would save costs etc. And today a commercial fast DC changing is more expensive (per km of range) than an ICE car of the same class and size. And that's with gas prices doubling since 2009 crash. I've just did a quick calculation with today's prices and modern cars in the comparison.
> I remember how everyone raved about cheap EV charging a decade ago, how it would save costs etc. And today a commercial fast DC changing is more expensive (per km of range) than an ICE car of the same class and size.
The raving was over the cost of home charging vs gasoline, and that advantage still holds today, even in very expensive electricity markets like MA or CA.
The way most people will feel the hit is air conditioning costs, since their usage can't cheaply be moved off peak rate hours, and an array of home batteries isn't cheap enough for households that have high energy burden.
Oh, I completely agree, home charging even today is significantly cheaper than gas price (adjusted). The problem is that charging at home can be done only by people owning a detached or semi-detached house. So it's basically only possible for luxury owners (at least in EU) because a vast majority of population is living in the apartment blocks. So the situation is doubly funny, first - the main advantage in costs is only possible by already rich people who don't really appreciate it, while poorer people pay through the nose for the same thing. And second - the whole international car market is now shaped by the application of this rich people motivation to whole population. The whole "let's move all car sales to EV by the year 2035" or whatever. And poorer people will again may for the luxury toys of the rich.
PS: this comment sounds a bit weird I admit, but I'm not against EVs and I'm not a climate change denier. I'm just severely disappointed in how EV integration in the society actually happened.
You said it right here. No one is going to give up energy at such a cheap rate anymore. Those days are over. Darkness for the US is coming.