In the (hopefully unlikely) event that Twitter forces this deal to close and some equity partners don’t come through, it is important to avoid an emergency sale of Tesla stock. @elonmusk 2:53 AM · Aug 10, 2022
50% chance that is a bs excuse to liquidate - 50% chance he has figured out he is totally screwed on the twitter lawsuit.
I'm more astounded because I remember from 2015 or before, here on HN several threads for months on end popping up all about how Twitter was defrauding users with bots. Then it quietly disappeared and now we are hearing about it all over again. I don't know which users are bots, I know people can buy followers, are those the bots? If that's the full extent of it, it feels, so insignificant to me, however, they were apparently reporting usage metrics which included bots on the platform which was misleading to investors is what I remember being the issue back 5 or more years.
What does this mean for Elon Musk? I'm not sure, but I wonder if he already knew about the bots or what.
I also want to make Twitter better than ever by enhancing the product with new features, making the algorithms open source to increase trust, defeating the spam bots, and authenticating all humans @elonmusk April 25, 2022
On April 25, 2022 - Twitter's board of directors accepted Musk's buyout offer of $44 billion.
Which seems more likely?
- He’s irrational and crazy and changes his mind on a whim
- This whole thing was an excuse to sell a ton of TSLA at the top of the market
The prior. The second is a post rationalization of his behavior attempting to deflect his inability to predict with certainty the exact development of the future, coupled with an extremely odd base assumption that he was somehow completely incapable of liquidating stock with out having some “public cover”.
People will go to great lengths to defend their idols, but claiming that Musk was playing 4D chess on this and that it was all a ploy to liquidate stock is the inverse of Occam’s razor, especially considering all the more straight forwards paths he had even if this was his main objective.
Wasn't a Twitter employee arrested a while back for spying on Saudi dissidents on KSA's behalf? Looks like they just figured they could cut the middlemen.
In the future, if an acquisition gets offered at some x price and the stock rallies to almost x, then the delta (smart move) is to short, not buy. If you buy, the most you are going to get is that 5% bump. If you short, you can make 100%.
Most pending M&A deals will get arbed to almost perfection, so I doubt the strategy you're suggesting here will make money, for 2 reasons:
1. it's a lot more likely that you're going to lose 5% than make 100% (in reality you're making more like 20%, because the stock won't go to 0 if the deal doesn't go through). The bet will actually look something like 20% to make 20% or 80% to lose 5%. The expectation of that is 0.
2. For many names borrow fees will shoot up and there will be limited availability to short. So you'll have to take that into account. The fees can get particularly painful if the deal drags on for a long time.
How does the Twitter share price stop you from living your life?
The current price is $42. If you need money, sell some portion of it.
$42 is probably a fair risk-adjusted price as the board will likely ultimately settle for a lower sale price to avoid a very public litigation about its true bot content.
Don't look at $54.29 as the "correct" price. Evaluate the spectrum of probabilistic outcomes.
Is it a personal attack when each of his points were pretty factual? Like not even subjectively but objectively.
Billionaire troll is also objectively factual.
I understand the reasons for wanting a passionate topic to stay cool, I'm just genuinely curious about the personal attack angle, not stirring the pot.
Yes, of course it can still be a personal attack. There are infinitely many facts. Which ones you choose to mention, how you put them together, and how you express them are at least as important as their factiness.
Oh I see. The answer there is more subtle (maybe too subtle to have been a good idea) – I was writing that phrase from the point of view of the person I was talking to.
When trying to persuade people not to fulminate and whatnot, I usually make an "even if you're right" argument: "even if you're right about $topic, please don't post the way you just did, because it's bad for the community". It doesn't mean I actually think they're right.
A harder-nosed way to say it would be: "it doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, you broke the rules and that's that". But it usually works better to include the possibility that the commenter is right. It costs nothing (the moderation point is the same either way) and it signals "I understand your point of view and it's not my purpose to dispute it". In this way you're standing alongside the other person, persuading them, instead of standing opposite, berating them.
It's also more efficient because by explicitly separating the two things (being right vs. following the rules), there's less energy for the otherwise inevitable objection, "you just don't like what I posted because you disagree with it".
So when I said "billionaire troll" it was not to agree, but rather to say "see? I understand your point of view, but you're participating in a community where we all have to take care of the ecosystem—you can't just toss lit matches or trash the place". Reflecting someone's point back to them in language they recognize is a more effective way to show you understand their point of view than merely saying "I understand your point of view". Nevertheless, the operative word in the sentence remains "but".
Of course, if you go too far in doing that, you run the risk of upsetting the other side, so you have to thread the needle. I probably should have used a more neutral phrase.
This is what I always say. The only people more annoying than his fanboys are the people that passionately hate him and want to tell the world about it
The vast majority of people want to follow someone that has the answers to all of life's problems. Usually the amount of life answers one claims to have is inversely proportional to their wisdom and intelligence.
Reminds me of Jürgen Klopp, Liverpool FC coach, being asked by the media what did he think about the pandemic, to which he answered, paraphrased: "why the hell are you asking me such a question? I'm a football coach, who cares about my opinion on a pandemic. Go talk with a doctor or a virologist, not a football guy."
I dont thing the diving accident behavior is something I would fault anyone for. In an emotional time-critical situation he was asked to help. They (Tesla etc) tried to come up with an idea and work on it. Someone else from the actual team became very explicit in his dismissal, Elon responded in kind. Should he have taken the high-road, yes, but considering the situation, people do misspeak. To then say everything after that taints his character forever is just implausible and shows an emotional disconnect itself.
He called the diver a pedophile, hired a private investigator to study him and claimed to Buzzfeed in an email("off the record") that he has evidence of the diver being a rapist and buying his wife, or something to that effect.
All of those were invented lies, but he also won the defamation lawsuit against him, because he's rich and he can do whatever he wants with no consequences.
Oh yeah, he also flew to Thailand for a photo op with the military, showcasing his idiotic submarine while kids were dying in that cave.
He's a narcissistic asshole at best, a sociopath at worst.
I dislike Elon as well. But the diving incident is not something I dislike him for. It was simply an emotional response when that guy insulted his efforts. There's plenty of reasons to hate Elon but this ain't it.
He called the guy a pedo, hired an investigator to look into him, and claimed he was a rapist who bought his wife. There is no defending that. Elon is a massive piece of shit.
I'm not defending anything. Expecting perfection from another person is the problem here. Elon is a person with his own defects. Most people seem to think that someone in the spotlights should be free from flaws and humanity. And if they aren't they should be hated.
I hate this kind of response so much because it downplays the gravity of what Musk tried to do. He literally tried to ruin someone's entire life because he had his ego challenged and wanted to do so with the most grave fallacious accusations you could possibly make. He never apologized or even attempted to fix his mistake. Though given you seem to have a history of defending Musk, I'm guessing you are in fact trying to defend him.
Marketing the Auto Pilot. Self driving taxis by 2018 or whatever.
Everyone involved with programming or science in general should have called that a scam from the very begging and I'm still mystified that everyone bought it.
Yeah I definitely called BS on that one from early on. I was surprised at how convinced people were that actual "Full Self Driving" was right around the corner, but it seemed to almost 100% correlate with how much of a Musk fan the individual was, regardless of how much actual programming/ML knowledge they had.
I'm the opposite. Used to hate him, thought he'd just another self righteous leftist billionaire.
But after he started speaking out against the censorship of Twitter, and about depopulation being a problem, and calling out bill gates and Biden, I appreciate him more than before. I think he wouldn't try to back off if he didn't initiate the deal at what was probably the market top for the next several years.
It is going to be seriously disappointing, nay depressing, if - in 5 years time or so - we look back at this era and see the end of humanities greatest attempt to move to space, ruined because of the mobthink of Twitter.
I sure hope Elon manages to get through the turmoil he has created - and incurred by stint of the raging hate-boners of liberals everywhere - and gets Starship completed and ready to rumble.
Because nothing makes the imperative for the human race to move to space more clear than the ranting/raging rubble that calls for the blood of any human being who dares to raise the bar and yet still makes a few rude unforgivable mistakes along the way ..
Seriously, I hope we get Starship, whatever happens. If that is canned because Musk was eaten by cannibals, its going to be a very, very disappointing result.
Shotwell would take over and is just as flakey and bit crazy. She told investors we'll likely have passenger rocket flights in 6 years (2028) so she could fly to Riyadh for lunch and that tickets would cost between economy and business class:
“Because I travel a lot, and I do not love to travel. And I would love to get to see my customers in Riyadh, leave in the morning and be back in time to make dinner.” Shotwell said the rockets would be cost competitive with long-haul airline flights because of their ability to make several trips a day."
They doubled down a year or two ago and said that timeline was still on track. Think about what they are saying critically.
Geeze, cherry-picking much? This is just anti-progress ranting, ultimately.
SpaceX has done more for the space industry than any other industry this century. I look forward to my lunches in Riyadh, personally .. assuming the military-industrial-complex doesn't get its way and we're all victims of their aggression, instead of the progress SpaceX offer ..
> and incurred by stint of the raging hate-boners of liberals everywhere
Or just his own awful actions. Rushing into a garbage purchase contract for Twitter is his own fault and nobody else's. Attacking people at the drop of a hat (regardless of the justness of his actions) is his own self-destructive choice.
The only meaningful squanderer of Elon's potential is Elon himself, not the Twitter rabble.
If he must buy TWTR at his advertised price with his own cash, he must liquidate way more TSLA - about 44bln$ worth, as far as I remember. He actually will have to liquidate way more, because liquidation is a taxation event, and he'll have to pay a significant percentage of his gains to the US government. I don't know how much he needs to liquidate, but I'd guess it's more like 60-70bln$.
Liquidating such an amount of TSLA in a short time will not happen without significant reduction of TSLA stock price. Musk will probably still be a multi-billionaire afterwards, but it would cost him several billions on the TSLA and TWTR front, because he would have overpaid for TWTR, TSLA share price would have tanked and he would have paid billions in taxes.
On the dumb-n-dumber Full Send Youtube channel the tip of the iceberg model for where Twitter would be with Elon Musk setting priorities and directions was touched and this cash could be the basis for funding the 3-year business plan accelerant. The Optimus Prime A.I. [OPAI] subject will be touched on next. Picture a world with people on Twitter and OPAI is the hub of activity for unfouled information. That's the potential upside.
I can't believe the biggest huckster, snake-oil-salesman, ever, is going to end up owning the internet's town square.
Our last hope for justice are the courts. Musk has three major trials in October, the 420 "funding secured" trial, some sex discrimination or bullying trial, I think, and the twitter trial in Delaware Chancery court.
The Chancery is our best chance, as they don't play. And Musk has already caused a rule 11 breach by signing statements that his own evidentiary submitions prove false.
I hope the courts fine him a few billion for his antics, and maybe ban him from being an company officer for 5 years. That's the only punishment that would be meaningful for a man like that. Specific performance, alone, would be a massive win for Musk. He needs to get fined hard, too.
> I can't believe the biggest huckster, snake-oil-salesman, ever, is going to end up owning the internet's town square.
Your two points seem to be at odds. If Twitter prevails in the upcoming case, my understanding is that Musk would be forced to complete the deal. I'd much prefer he just fcks off and goes home, even if it means he "wins".
50% chance that is a bs excuse to liquidate - 50% chance he has figured out he is totally screwed on the twitter lawsuit.